Turkish Committee Approves Sweden’s NATO Bid: The Path Ahead

Sweden’s journey to becoming a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has advanced notably after the Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee approved the protocol for its membership. This progress follows the decision of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to withdraw his earlier opposition to Sweden joining NATO, which he announced at a summit in July.

Erdogan’s Policy Reversal and Legislative Hurdles

President Erdogan’s change in stance was a turning point in the process of NATO’s enlargement. However, the journey of the ratification bill through the Turkish parliament was marked by delays, and it took additional time for the parliamentary committee to sanction it. Now, the protocol awaits further ratification by the entire general assembly, but the schedule for this vital proceeding remains indeterminate.

Sweden and Finland’s Departure from Neutrality

In response to escalating security concerns, particularly after Russia’s incursion into Ukraine in February 2022, Sweden and Finland abandoned their traditional stance of neutrality. Earlier this year, following ratification by the Turkish parliament, Finland joined NATO as its 31st member. However, the process for Sweden’s NATO membership is still ongoing, with Hungary being the last member of the alliance yet to schedule a date for ratification.

The Complexities of Diplomatic Negotiations

Turkey’s Security Concerns

Initially, Turkey was against Sweden’s NATO application, pointing to Sweden’s perceived leniency towards groups Ankara deems security risks. These include supporters of Kurdish militants and those associated with the failed coup against Erdogan’s government in 2016. In response, Sweden has revamped its anti-terrorism legislation, imposing stringent penalties for backing extremist groups.

Rising Anti-Turkey Sentiments

Complicating the matter were the anti-Turkey and anti-Islam demonstrations in Stockholm, including incidents like Quran burning. Despite condemnation by the Swedish government, Turkey criticized Sweden’s allowance of such protests under the guise of free speech protections.

Erdogan’s Strategic Positioning

President Erdogan has tied Sweden’s NATO accession to Turkey’s ambitions to acquire U.S.-manufactured F-16 fighter jets. He has also urged Canada and other NATO countries to revoke arms embargoes on Turkey. While the Biden administration in the U.S. is in favor of Turkey’s F-16 request, there is notable resistance in the U.S. Congress.

The Road Ahead

Following the committee’s endorsement, the next stage for Sweden’s NATO membership is the debate and ratification in the general assembly. While Erdogan’s party has the majority in the parliament, the final decision is said to be in the hands of the lawmakers, with Erdogan’s nationalist allies still showing apprehension regarding Sweden’s admission due to ongoing security concerns and regional tensions.

Hungary’s Position

Hungary, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, has also been a stumbling block in Sweden’s NATO journey. Critics believe Hungary is wielding its veto power as a bargaining chip against the European Union. Hungarian opposition believes Orban might align with Turkey’s actions and give the green light to Sweden’s NATO bid once Turkey’s ratification appears imminent.

In Summary

The progression of Sweden’s NATO membership, marked by the Turkish parliamentary committee’s approval, is a crucial step in the expansion of NATO and the evolving landscape of European security. Despite the procedural and diplomatic steps that lie ahead, this marks a significant shift in the dynamics of NATO’s membership and international alliances.